{"title":"Series: Incerto","description":"\u003cp\u003eThe \u003cem\u003eIncerto\u003c\/em\u003e series invites readers to explore complex ideas across diverse fields, from philosophy and psychology to finance and entrepreneurship. Each title challenges conventional thinking, offering fresh perspectives on uncertainty, value, and human behaviour that provoke reflection and insight.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eWith themes spanning history, technology, and even children's literature, this collection appeals to inquisitive minds eager to engage with thoughtful, often unconventional narratives. Whether delving into economic theory or venturing into imaginative storytelling, \u003cem\u003eIncerto\u003c\/em\u003e encourages a deeper understanding of the world around us.\u003c\/p\u003e","products":[{"product_id":"fooled-by-randomness","title":"Fooled by Randomness","description":"\u003cdiv class=\"book-description\"\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor readers who admire the works of Malcolm Gladwell, Peter Bernstein, Robert Shiller, and Richard Dawkins, \u003cem\u003eFooled by Randomness\u003c\/em\u003e by Nassim Nicholas Taleb offers an intellectually stimulating journey into the heart of uncertainty. This remarkable book stands independently within Taleb's acclaimed Incerto series—a profound exploration of concepts including luck, risk, human error, decision-making, and the intricate interplay of chance and skill in our lives. The series also includes acclaimed titles such as \u003cem\u003eThe Black Swan\u003c\/em\u003e, \u003cem\u003eAntifragile\u003c\/em\u003e, \u003cem\u003eSkin in the Game\u003c\/em\u003e, and \u003cem\u003eThe Bed of Procrustes\u003c\/em\u003e.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eFooled by Randomness\u003c\/em\u003e revolutionises the reader's perception of business and the world at large. Taleb—the veteran trader, esteemed risk expert, polymath, erudite raconteur, and \u003cem\u003eNew York Times\u003c\/em\u003e bestselling author of \u003cem\u003eThe Black Swan\u003c\/em\u003e—delivers a seminal work that critically examines our understanding of luck and skill. This modern classic challenges the conventional wisdom that often mistakes random events for patterns, especially in contexts like trading where such errors can have significant consequences.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThe core theme of the book is luck, or more precisely, the human tendency to misconstrue luck as skill. Set against the high-stakes world of trading, Taleb's narrative unveils how randomness actually plays a pivotal role in many aspects of life and business, yet is frequently underestimated or overlooked. With an engaging and entertaining style, Taleb delves into profound intellectual quandaries, exposing the fallacies in our perception and the tendency to overvalue human foresight and control.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThe narrative features an eclectic mix of characters who have each grasped the essence of chance in unique ways. Taleb references Yogi Berra, the baseball legend known for his paradoxical wisdom; Karl Popper, the philosopher of knowledge; Solon, the sage of ancient times; George Soros, the modern financier; and Odysseus, the legendary Greek voyager. Additionally, Taleb introduces the fictional Nero, a trader who understands randomness in his profession but is ultimately ensnared by his own superstitious beliefs. However, the most relatable figure is the \"lucky fool\"—an individual who prospers purely through being in the right place at the right time, epitomising the survival of the least fit. These individuals often gain devoted followers who misinterpret their chance successes as the result of profound insight or strategy, forgetting that such luck cannot be reliably replicated.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eTaleb poses critical questions: Can we discern the genuinely insightful from the merely lucky? Are we doomed to seek meaning in random occurrences? While it may be impossible to completely shield ourselves from the whims of fortune, Taleb's insights in \u003cem\u003eFooled by Randomness\u003c\/em\u003e can help us better navigate the unpredictable world we inhabit.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eAcknowledged by \u003cem\u003eFortune\u003c\/em\u003e as one of the \"Smartest Books of All Time\" and recognised by the \u003cem\u003eFinancial Times\u003c\/em\u003e as a Best Business Book of the Year, \u003cem\u003eFooled by Randomness\u003c\/em\u003e provides readers with a deeper appreciation of the hidden forces shaping our lives and encourages a more nuanced approach to understanding success and failure.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e","brand":"Penguin Random House NZ","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":45657921618156,"sku":"9780812975215","price":61.0,"currency_code":"NZD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0705\/7784\/8556\/files\/9780812975215.jpg?v=1724846363"},{"product_id":"antifragile-by-nassim-nicholas-taleb-9780812979688","title":"Antifragile","description":"\u003cdiv class=\"book-description\"\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eNEW YORK TIMES\u003c\/i\u003e BESTSELLER • \u003ci\u003eAntifragile\u003c\/i\u003e is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are \u003ci\u003eFooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, Skin in the Game,\u003c\/i\u003e and \u003ci\u003eThe Bed of Procrustes\u003c\/i\u003e.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eNassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of \u003ci\u003eThe Black Swan\u003c\/i\u003e and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eJust as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumours or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eIn \u003ci\u003eThe Black Swan,\u003c\/i\u003e Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. In \u003ci\u003eAntifragile,\u003c\/i\u003e Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFurthermore, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call “efficient” not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before even starting on the job? How did the sinking of the \u003ci\u003eTitanic\u003c\/i\u003e save lives? The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine. And throughout, in addition to the street wisdom of Fat Tony of Brooklyn, the voices and recipes of ancient wisdom, from Roman, Greek, Semitic, and medieval sources, are loud and clear.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eAntifragile\u003c\/i\u003e is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb’s message is revolutionary: The antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePraise for \u003ci\u003eAntifragile\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e“Ambitious and thought-provoking . . . highly entertaining.” \u003cb\u003e—\u003ci\u003eThe Economist\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e“A bold book explaining how and why we should embrace uncertainty, randomness, and error . . . It may just change our lives.” \u003cb\u003e—\u003ci\u003eNewsweek\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e","brand":"Unknown","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47642759987436,"sku":"9780812979688","price":61.0,"currency_code":"NZD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0705\/7784\/8556\/files\/9780812979688-antifragile.jpg?v=1779157129"},{"product_id":"skin-in-the-game-by-nassim-nicholas-taleb-9780425284643","title":"Skin in the Game","description":"\u003cdiv class=\"book-description\"\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e#1 \u003ci\u003eNEW YORK TIMES\u003c\/i\u003e BESTSELLER\u003c\/strong\u003e • A bold work from the author of \u003ci\u003eThe Black Swan\u003c\/i\u003e that challenges many of our long-held beliefs about risk and reward, politics and religion, finance and personal responsibility.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eIn his most provocative and practical book yet, one of the foremost thinkers of our time redefines what it means to understand the world, succeed in a profession, contribute to a fair and just society, detect nonsense, and influence others. Citing examples ranging from Hammurabi to Seneca, Antaeus the Giant to Donald Trump, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows how the willingness to accept one’s own risks is an essential attribute of heroes, saints, and flourishing people in all walks of life.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eAs always both accessible and iconoclastic, Taleb challenges long-held beliefs about the values of those who spearhead military interventions, make financial investments, and propagate religious faiths. Among his insights:\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e• For social justice, focus on symmetry and risk sharing.\u003c\/strong\u003e You cannot make profits and transfer the risks to others, as bankers and large corporations do. You cannot get rich without owning your own risk and paying for your own losses. Forcing skin in the game corrects this asymmetry better than thousands of laws and regulations.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e• Ethical rules aren’t universal.\u003c\/strong\u003e You’re part of a group larger than you, but it’s still smaller than humanity in general.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e• Minorities, not majorities, run the world.\u003c\/strong\u003e The world is not run by consensus but by stubborn minorities imposing their tastes and ethics on others.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e• You can be an intellectual yet still be an idiot.\u003c\/strong\u003e “Educated philistines” have been wrong on everything from Stalinism to Iraq to low-carb diets.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e• Beware of complicated solutions (that someone was paid to find).\u003c\/strong\u003e A simple barbell can build muscle better than expensive new machines.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e• True religion is commitment, not just faith.\u003c\/strong\u003e How much you believe in something is manifested only by what you’re willing to risk for it.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThe phrase \u003cem\u003eSkin in the Game\u003c\/em\u003e is one we have often heard but rarely stopped to truly dissect. It is the backbone of risk management, but it’s also an astonishingly rich worldview that, as Taleb shows in this book, applies to all aspects of our lives. As Taleb says, “The symmetry of skin in the game is a simple rule that’s necessary for fairness and justice, and the ultimate BS-buster,” and “Never trust anyone who doesn’t have skin in the game. Without it, fools and crooks will benefit, and their mistakes will never come back to haunt them.”\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e","brand":"Unknown","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47643219394796,"sku":"9780425284643","price":59.0,"currency_code":"NZD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0705\/7784\/8556\/files\/9aed9686efdfd512f9c1913c4b75332c.jpg?v=1779168797"},{"product_id":"the-black-swan-second-edition-by-nassim-nicholas-taleb-9780812973815","title":"The Black Swan: Second Edition","description":"\u003cdiv class=\"book-description\"\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003eNEW YORK TIMES\u003c\/i\u003e BESTSELLER • The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don’t know, now with a new section called “On Robustness and Fragility.”\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eA black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9\/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eWhy do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorise, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFor years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eTaleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, \u003ci\u003eThe Black Swan\u003c\/i\u003e is a landmark book—itself a black swan.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e","brand":"Penguin Random House NZ","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47643270906092,"sku":"9780812973815","price":58.0,"currency_code":"NZD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0705\/7784\/8556\/files\/18db8037411f8a995efcd2e5aa0bfef7.jpg?v=1779168237"}],"url":"https:\/\/bookhero.live\/collections\/series-incerto.oembed","provider":"Book Hero","version":"1.0","type":"link"}