{"title":"Peter Turchin","description":"\u003cp\u003eWelcome to our collection featuring the thought-provoking works of Peter Turchin, an expert in evolutionary biology and an influential figure in the fields of history and societal dynamics. With a unique approach that blends the sciences and humanities, Turchin offers profound insights into the cyclical nature of human history and societal development.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eTurchin's \u003cem\u003eEnd Times\u003c\/em\u003e delves into the complexities of political and social unrest, exploring patterns of institutional failure and recovery. This book is key for those interested in understanding the underlying causes of societal crises and finding pathways to stability. Ideal for readers engrossed in \u003cstrong\u003ePolitics \u0026amp; Current Affairs\u003c\/strong\u003e, it provides a compelling framework for examining contemporary global challenges.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eIn \u003cem\u003eFiguring Out The Past\u003c\/em\u003e, Turchin collaborates with other scholars to uncover historical patterns through quantitative analysis. This work is a testament to his innovative approach to history, making it an excellently resourceful read for anyone interested in \u003cstrong\u003eEducation \u0026amp; Reference\u003c\/strong\u003e or keen on employing scientific methods to interpret historical events.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eSecular Cycles\u003c\/em\u003e, another cornerstone of Turchin's oeuvre, investigates the repeating cycles common to societies over centuries. A critical text in the \u003cstrong\u003eHistory \u0026amp; Military\u003c\/strong\u003e category, it provides an engaging exploration of how economic, demographic, and political factors intertwine to shape historical trajectories.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eWhether you're a seasoned history buff, a policy enthusiast, or simply curious about the forces driving societal evolution, Peter Turchin's books offer transformative perspectives that are both enlightening and accessible.\u003c\/p\u003e","products":[{"product_id":"end-times","title":"End Times","description":"\u003cdiv class=\"book-description\"\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA brilliant new theory of how society works from one of the most iconoclastic thinkers of our time.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eWhat leads to political turbulence and social breakdown? How do elites maintain their dominant position? And why do ruling classes sometimes suddenly lose their grip on power?\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFor decades, complexity scientist Peter Turchin has been studying world history like no one else. Assembling vast databases mined from 10,000 years of human activity, and then developing new models, he has transformed the way we learn from the past. \u003cem\u003eEnd Times\u003c\/em\u003e is the result— a ground-breaking account of how society works.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThe lessons, he argues, are clear. When the balance of power between the ruling class and the majority tips too far in favour of elites, income inequality surges. The rich get richer, the poor further impoverished. As more people try to join the elite, frustration with the establishment brims over, often with disastrous consequences. Elite overproduction led to state breakdown in imperial China, in medieval France, in the American Civil War— and it is happening now.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eBut while we are far along the path toward violent political rupture, Turchin's models also light the way to a brighter future. Drawing insight from those occasions in history where the balance was restored, \u003cem\u003eEnd Times\u003c\/em\u003e also points towards a different future— an escape from the patterns of the past.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e","brand":"Penguin Random House NZ","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":45745207705836,"sku":"9780141999289","price":30.0,"currency_code":"NZD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0705\/7784\/8556\/files\/9780141999289.jpg?v=1726672546"},{"product_id":"figuring-out-the-past-by-daniel-hoyer-9781788161930","title":"Figuring Out The Past","description":"\u003cdiv class=\"book-description\"\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhat was history's biggest empire? Or the tallest building of the ancient world? What was the average life expectancy in medieval Byzantium? The average wage in Old Kingdom Egypt? Where did scientific writing first emerge? What was the bloodiest ritual human sacrifice ever?\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eWe are used to thinking about history in terms of stories. Yet we understand our own world through data: vast arrays of statistics that reveal the workings of our societies. So, join the radical historians Peter Turchin and Dan Hoyer for a dive into the numbers that reveal the true shape of the past.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eDrawing on their own Seshat project, a staggeringly ambitious attempt to log each piece of demographic and econometric information that can be reliably estimated for every society that has ever existed, \u003ci\u003eFiguring Out The Past\u003c\/i\u003e does more than tell the story of the past: it shows you the large-scale patterns.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e","brand":"Allen \u0026 Unwin","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":46832997466348,"sku":"9781788161930","price":27.99,"currency_code":"NZD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0705\/7784\/8556\/files\/18148343482824.jpg?v=1758422839"},{"product_id":"secular-cycles-by-peter-turchin-9780691136967","title":"Secular Cycles","description":"\u003cdiv class=\"book-description\"\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMany historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003ePeter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations—what the authors call \u003cem\u003esecular cycles\u003c\/em\u003e. \u003cem\u003eSecular Cycles\u003c\/em\u003e elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThis book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eIncorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications. An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, \u003cem\u003eSecular Cycles\u003c\/em\u003e will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e","brand":"NewSouth Books","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47000737546476,"sku":"9780691136967","price":205.0,"currency_code":"NZD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0705\/7784\/8556\/files\/1356813482434.jpg?v=1763301447"}],"url":"https:\/\/bookhero.live\/collections\/peter-turchin.oembed","provider":"Book Hero","version":"1.0","type":"link"}